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Don’t be fooled: 2015 hurricanes may come early but not often

Mon May 4th, 2015 on     Homeowners Insurance,    

In April, various meteorological organizations started to release their analyses and predictions of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. As every Florida resident knows, the season runs from June to November. For the most part.

The forecasts generally agreed that this year would be quieter even than last year. According to Colorado State University’s predictions, 2015 should see seven named storms and just three hurricanes. Only one hurricane should reach Category 3. If the predictions are correct, 2015 will be the quietest season in 18 years. Thank you, El Niño.

Imagine everyone’s surprise, then, when the Miami office of the National Hurricane Center issued statements regarding a non-tropical low pressure area forming just north of the Bahamas during the first week of May. The tropical lows are the ones to worry about, but there is a 30 percent chance that this non-tropical low could develop into something of interest.

If you are wondering what a hurricane would be doing in the Atlantic a month before the official season starts, you are not alone. Could be El Niño. Could be a fluke. Could be nothing at all.

Or it could be another Hurricane Andrew.

Andrew was one of 1992’s six storms. Six. Dozens of people died, tens of thousands of homes were destroyed and more than 100,000 homes were damaged. The devastation was appalling.

A representative from the National Hurricane Center warns that fewer storms do not necessarily translate into fewer deaths or less property damage. You only need to one.

Another warning comes from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety. We all know that Andrew was responsible for an overhaul of building codes. Don’t be fooled, the institute says, because a house that is built to code is not indestructible. All that means, the institutes chief executive says, is that your house should stay up ” long enough for you to get out.”


Insurance Journal, “Why Homeowners Should Worry Despite ‘Calm’ Hurricane Forecast,” Brian K. Sullivan, April 10, 2015

KTBS, “2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast,” Joe Haynes, April 29, 2015

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